(This article was originally published by me as a guest author at the site called “Surly and Scribe”)
“Scoracle” A Work In Progress 3/13/2012
Here in the land between spreadsheets (I made a joke, tee hee, “between the sheets”) and observational subjectivity, I am devising the end-all to predictors. Maybe.
This is intended as a snapshot of the key teams involved. I believe it will be between the Kings, Sharks, Avalanche, Flames and Coyotes to vie for the final two spots.
I am trying to find the formula that will account for home and away records as I try to figure out who is most likely to make the playoffs. If I can determine likely winners in those teams’ key games, I can project a points total, and therefore the likely final standings. Or not. But it’s gonna be fun trying.
I have taken each team’s points-won average, and separated them by road and home. For example, the Kings are 17-13-4 at home, and they have garnered 38 of 68 points. That computes to a point-getting percentage of .559. On the road, the Kings are 15-12-8, making 38 of 70 points to average .543.
I have done this for each team, and for each team’s opponent. For example, when the Kings play the Sharks at home, it will be the Kings’ home .559 against the Sharks’ road .514. That would look like this: .559/.514.
I am showing each team’s remaining games, in that format, in order of play. In the future, I will be computing further, using this format as a foundation.
Kings Home v. X = .559/.471, .559/.576, .559/.514, .559/636, .559/.621, .559/.338, .559/.514
Kings Away v. X = .543/.559, .543/666, .543/.486, .543/.514, .543/.531, .543/.621
Sharks Home v. X = .621/.576, .621/.471, .621/.431, .621/.621, .621/.544, .621/.515, .621/.559, .621/.543,
Sharks Away v. X = .514/.621, .514/.559, .514/.559, .514/.583, .514/.614, .514/.559
Coyotes Hm v. X = .583/.515, .583/.636, .583/.514, .583/.431, .583/.324
Coyotes Aw v. X = .544/.666, .544/.621, .544/.514, .544/.614, .544/621, .544/.838, .544/.531
Av’s Home v. X = .581/.486, .581/.666, .581/.324, .581/.576
Av’s Away v. X = .515/.597, .515/.603, .515/.750, .515/.583, .515/.621, .515/.666, .515/.621
Flames Home v. X = .621/.514, .621/.544, .621/.324, .621/.559
Flames Away v. X = .486/.514, .486/.581, .486/531, .486/.614, .486/.666
After just a quick look,the Av’s seem to have the toughest schedule, and they also have the fewest games left. The Kings have one of the toughest, if not the toughest, set of opponents. By tomorrow, I will have geeked it up even more, and will be posting a continuation of this article. But for now, I am going to watch the Wings game in person, so C YA!