Reprint: Points Threshold To Make Playoffs, And More

Seems like everybody is doing this calculating now…I posted this article originally at another site on January 8 of this year. Since other folks are talking about the points threshold now, I thought I would include my thoughts on the subject at my own, new site. Bottom line is, my calculations predicted this   educated guess   guess as good as using a dartboard  result for the East is 54 points, for the West is 55 points. The article spoke about last year’s wins, systems, and then having to “Calibrate” to the shortened schedule with the enhanced importance of points compared to a full 82-game schedule. I duplicated the parts about points and stuck it at the top, then the full article is after that for context if needed.

“…But if we’re gonna do numbers, and bother with all this cerebrating, then we might as well do the numbers completely. If we do that, we can Calibrate; we can fully adjust to the 48-game reality, by knowing just how valuable a point here-or-there is gonna be.

The short and obvious answer is they are gonna mean lots more than last year.  Points lost to lesser opponents, and those hard-won points from tough opponents, are gonna mean a whole lot more this season than we are used to. The overtime point is gonna really, really mean something now, more than ever.

Which is why we are gonna cerebrate so we can calibrate. Now, if 48 is almost half of 82, well then how many points will be needed to get into the playoffs? For that, we need to arrive at the correct proportion of 48 being 58.54% of 82. So 48 is actually closer to 60% of 82…

For the last 5 years, the East Conference has needed an average of 92 points to get into the playoffs.  Going backwards in time, it was 92, 93, 88, 93 and 94. If we apply the same point-getting percentage as 92 out of a possible 164, we can calculate what would be needed in a 48 game schedule, if the past is an indication of the future. 48 games gives a total of 96 points, and the equal percentage of 96 points would be 53.86 points. We round it to 54, and there is our answer. The East will need 54 points or so, and the range is probably 53-55 points.

The West has averaged a requirement of 93.8 points over the last 5 years, being 95, 97, 95, 91 and 91. 93.8 out of a possible 164 equals getting 54.91 points from a possible 96.  So, we round to 55, and our range is likely to be 54-56 points for the lowest team to get in with.

East, 54-ish. West, 55 ish. Arbitrary-ish range of 1 point, more or less.”

 

Full Article:

Celebrate, Cerebrate, Calibrate…and Celebrate again. 1/8/2013

The celebration part is done. With the opening of training camp, it’s official: winning the Cup is old news. It’s  ”totally last year, dude.”

So now we need to cerebrate. It means “to think,” of course, as in use the Cerebrum. The Kings already do this; it’s why they won. As I have said, the Kings are the smartest team in the NHL right now as far as I am concerned.
Their style of play demands full inter-change-ability from position to position, from role to role, from every player, on the fly and ad-libbed at real-time speed. I once called the Kings system “Judo;” I now think of it as “Free-Radical.” Dudes just bounce into space, always moving, diffusing on offense to spread out and become open, and swarming the opposition by concentration while defending.

The team has prescribed roles to be filled, like other teams do. The difference is that at any time, any player will fill any role. Scuderi rushes pucks, Greene scores shorthanders, Kopi clears the crease of loose pucks and Williams back-skates defending the rush. At any time, any player is required to fill the open spot, because his teammate has committed to an opponent, or to a rush, or to a pinch, whatever.

5 guys play 5 positions, usually their own position, but if a guy sees a good play that will take him out of his own position, he is free to make that play because his teammate will cover it up and clean it up. And that covering teammate will do that quite well, because the Kings are the smartest team, and also the most versatile.

Forwards cover points, D-men rush the puck, Centers cover the front of the net if no-one else is doing it. Hell’s bells,  soon even Quick will be counter-pinching along the half-wall trying to get the puck out of our zone. And if he did, it would damn well work, too. You dare ask why? Cuz he’s Jonathan Fucking Quick, that’s why. Plus, Mitchell and Greene have both made some pretty great saves recently, just ask the Canucks, Blues, Coyotes and Devils.

But as fans, we also need to Cerebrate a little, too. Not much, but some.  We need to adjust to the new reality of a 48 game schedule, almost as much as the players do. We cannot tolerate a 4 game losing streak, not the same way we might have in an 82 game schedule. If we, the fans, don’t fully adjust, then the players will not have the full psychic backstop of our informed collective conscious. Did I say that out loud? Please don’t tell the humans.

In a 48-game schedule, losing 2 would be like losing 4 in a row, according to Doc Emrick. And 4 would be almost like losing 8, normally. Cuz 48 is kinda close to half of 82, right? So, 4 would be as bad as 8, or close to it. Same with a 4-game winning streak, too, it’s way f’ing good to win just 4 in a row, this year.

But if we’re gonna do numbers, and bother with all this cerebrating, then we might as well do the numbers completely. If we do that, we can Calibrate; we can fully adjust to the 48-game reality, by knowing just how valuable a point here-or-there is gonna be.

The short and obvious answer is they are gonna mean lots more than last year.  Points lost to lesser opponents, and those hard-won points from tough opponents, are gonna mean a whole lot more this season than we are used to. The overtime point is gonna really, really mean something now, more than ever.

Which is why we are gonna cerebrate so we can calibrate. Now, if 48 is almost half of 82, well then how many points will be needed to get into the playoffs? For that, we need to arrive at the correct proportion of 48 being 58.54% of 82. So 48 is actually closer to 60% of 82…

For the last 5 years, the East Conference has needed an average of 92 points to get into the playoffs.  Going backwards in time, it was 92, 93, 88, 93 and 94. If we apply the same point-getting percentage as 92 out of a possible 164, we can calculate what would be needed in a 48 game schedule, if the past is an indication of the future. 48 games gives a total of 96 points, and the equal percentage of 96 points would be 53.86 points. We round it to 54, and there is our answer. The East will need 54 points or so, and the range is probably 53-55 points.

The West has averaged a requirement of 93.8 points over the last 5 years, being 95, 97, 95, 91 and 91. 93.8 out of a possible 164 equals getting 54.91 points from a possible 96.  So, we round to 55, and our range is likely to be 54-56 points for the lowest team to get in with.

East, 54-ish. West, 55 ish. Arbitrary-ish range of 1 point, more or less.

So now we have celebrated, we have cerebrated, and we have calibrated. In a little more than 5 months from now,  I fully expect us to begin celebrating.  AGAIN!

 

 

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